US prediction markets face court challenges as Kalshi adds contracts

Prediction-market disputes featured prominently in US reporting this week. Eleven amicus briefs supported New Jersey’s request for Supreme Court review of its dispute with Kalshi, questioning federal oversight of sports-event contracts and implications for state gambling rules. Polymarket also sought help against New York, according to SBC Americas. ¹²

Kalshi introduced ladder and escalator contracts for selected NFL player statistics, offering partial payouts when players finish below a target. Separately, a Bloomberg analysis found that low-probability contracts traded on Kalshi and Polymarket failed roughly 98% of the time. ³⁴

Elsewhere, Republic Amusements is cutting 81 jobs following a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling that skill games are illegal gambling machines, according to a WARN notice. Louisiana’s gaming board conditionally extended DraftKings’s sports betting permit through 19 February, citing an incomplete suitability investigation, with a full renewal hearing scheduled for 18 February.

Entries cited

1. Kalshi introduces incremental payout contracts for selected NFL player markets 2026-10-16
2. Bloomberg analysis finds roughly 98% loss rate for Kalshi and Polymarket longshot contracts 2026-10-16
3. Pennsylvania skill games ban leads Republic Amusements to cut 81 jobs 2026-10-16
4. Louisiana Gaming Control Board extends DraftKings permit through February 19 2026-10-16

Written by The Weekly Edge desk from our own entries, using AI drafting tools and our editorial standard. Each figure links to the entry and its original source. Standards · Corrections